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Things aren’t looking good for Paige Miles and Aaron Kelly. By Gil Kaufman Paige Miles Photo: Frank Micelotta/ Getty Images This year’s “American Idol” top 12 will be revealed on Thursday night’s (March 11) show, but not before the final four semifinalists are shown the door. Unlike previous weeks, when it was fairly obvious which two guys and two girls would be leaving the show, the competition has finally begun to get tighter, and making the call this week is a bit harder. The decision seems pretty clear, though, to MTV News’ “Idol in 60 Seconds” honcho Jim Cantiello. “Paige Miles blew it,” he said of the singer who has been touted as having the strongest voice in the competition by the judges during the live shows after getting next-to-zero screen time in Hollywood. “For two weeks, we’ve heard the judges go on and on about her big voice. Then she finally tries to share it with America and chokes!” Cantiello was referring to Miles’ uneven, off-key cover of “Smile,” a song written by silent-movie star Charlie Chaplin, which was one of Michael Jackson’s favorite tunes. “Take her lack of preseason screen time and add it to her dreadful ‘Smile,’ and you have a Paige farewell in the cards.” He suspected Miles would be joined by old-before-her-time teen Katie Stevens, who he said “floundered in the semifinals with bad song choices and a lack of identity.” Cantiello said Stevens’ cover of original “Idol” Kelly Clarkson’s “Breakaway” on Tuesday night “not only had the unfortunate opening spot [on the show] … but it was also Katie’s weakest vocal to date.” He also predicted that fellow identity-deficient high-schooler Aaron Kelly had worn out his welcome on the show with a “goat-y vibrato and a song that swallowed him whole,” speaking of a wobbly take on Lonestar’s “I’m Already There.” On the show, judge Simon Cowell said the vocal wasn’t great, but he liked the song, while Kara DioGuardi felt the 16-year-old didn’t sell her on a lyric about a dad calling home to his kids. “Plus, he’s from a super-small town [Sonestown, Pennsylvania] so he doesn’t have that organized support system some of the other contestants have set up.” Though Todrick Hall surprised everyone with a cover of Queen’s bombastic “Somebody to Love,” Cantiello thinks it’s curtains for the dancer. “I haven’t come across too many Todrick fans on the Web (other than, randomly, season eight’s Matt Giraud), so his days were numbered regardless of how he performed on the boy’s show,” he opined. “Incidentally, I dug what he did with that Queen song but not sure it won him any new fans, though.” Our other “Idol” expert, MJ Santilli, who runs “Idol” fan site MJsBigBlog.com , agreed with Cantiello on Miles and Kelly but diverged on the other two picks. “Stick a fork in her, she’s done,” Santilli said of Miles. “Paige needed to come out this week with a strong performance, but her WTF rendition of ‘Smile’ sealed her deal. A sad waste of potential.” As for Kelly, she said his pitchy performances didn’t really connect emotionally with the audience. “He needed a couple of more years of maturing to be ready for prime time,” she suggested. “And as tween fodder, he’s competing with Tim Urban and Alex Lambert.” Santilli’s pick for the other guy going home was a surprise: Lee Dewyze, a perennial favorite of Cowell’s who sang a Dave Matthews-ish folky version of Owl City’s “Fireflies” that the judges generally agreed was good enough to get him through to the top 12. “The judges like Lee, but the grunge rocker’s pitchy, tentative performances haven’t really connected with ‘Idol’ viewers,” said Santilli, whose site features hundreds of comments from show fanatics on the week’s performances. Santilli also predicted that Texas singer Lacey Brown would be sent packing. “Her excellent performance Tuesday night of Brandi Carlile’s ‘The Story’ was too little, too late.” Do you agree with our experts’ picks? Let us know by leaving your comments below. Get your “Idol” fix on MTV News’ “American Idol” page , where you’ll find all the latest news, interviews and opinions. Related Videos ‘American Idol’ In 60 Seconds Related Photos ‘American Idol’ Season Nine Performances

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‘American Idol’ Experts Predict Who’s Going Home Tonight